According to outlook from the NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center divisions of the National Weather Service, there is a 50% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during this year’s central Pacific hurricane season.
The outlook also indicates a 35% chance for near-normal activity, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal hurricane season.
For the 2023 season, 4 to 7 tropical cyclones are predicted for the central Pacific hurricane region, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin, and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaiʻi. The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions using satellites, land-and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. These observations are fed into complex computer models that run on NOAA’s supercomputers. Forecasters at the Center use the information to develop storm track and intensity forecasts and provide critical decision support services to emergency managers at the federal, state and county levels.
This summer, NOAA will increase its supercomputing capacity by 20%, allowing for more detailed, higher-resolution forecast models, advanced physics and improved data assimilation. Once implemented, the computing system will be able to perform 29 quadrillion calculations per second. The expansion will allow for forecast model upgrades for years to come, starting with the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will also extend the forecast range of the Tropical Weather Outlook from five to seven days this season. The seven-day outlook will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for tropical activity and creates a seamless suite of products when combined with the two-week Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
Throughout the season, the public can check for watches and warnings on the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s website and visit FEMA’s Ready.gov for additional hurricane preparedness tips.
Photo credit: NOAA
